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House prices fell by 0.9% in August
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September 06,2010
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House prices fell by 0.9% month-on-month (m/m) in August, following a decline of 0.5% m/m in July, report Nationwide.
Commenting on the figures Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said:
“This is the first time since February 2009 that house prices have fallen in two consecutive months. The 3 month on 3 month rate of change – generally a smoother indicator of the recent price trend – fell from 1.2% in July to 0.0% in August, suggesting that house prices have essentially stagnated over the summer.
"Unless house prices bounce back strongly in September, the three month rate of change will turn negative next month.
"The annual rate of inflation – which compares the current average price with the price level twelve months ago –remained in positive territory at 3.9%. However, it is down quite sharply from rates of 6.6% in July and 8.7% in June.
“Recent market trends remain consistent with an unwinding of the supply-demand imbalance that drove up prices for much of the last year. As more sellers have returned to the market, buyers have a greater selection of properties to choose from and more bargaining power with which to bid down asking prices.
"There is little evidence of distressed selling, however, with the Council of Mortgage Lenders' second quarter figures showing another drop in mortgage arrears and possessions. As such, the current period of price declines is likely to remain relatively modest.
"Given that the price increases of the last year had gotten ahead of the recovery in the wider economy, the current correction is not an unhealthy development.
More borrowers on variable rates
“Over the last two years, there have been significant changes to the characteristics of the mortgage stock, particularly with regard to the proportion of lending on fixed rate mortgages.
"Between the final quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2010, the proportion of mortgage balances on fixed rates fell from 48% to 36%, as fewer borrowers coming to the end of a fixed rate deal chose to remortgage onto a new fixed rate. This is primarily because of the availability of attractive standard variable rates.
“Borrowers on variable rates have experienced a very large cash flow benefit from the reduction in the Bank of England base rate in late 2008 and early 2009. The average rate paid on variable rate mortgage balances across the market was only 2.8% in June, compared to 5.9% in September 2008 and 5.3% for fixed rate balances.
"The additional cash flow from lower mortgage rates has been instrumental in keeping arrears and possessions relatively low during the recession, helping house prices to stage the rebound seen between early 2009 and the middle of 2010.
“However, while the increasing proportion of variable rate mortgage balances has allowed more borrowers to benefit from the low level of the Bank of England base rate, it also means that more households are exposed to potential future increases in interest rates.
"Should the proportion of variable rate mortgage balances remain high, the impact of base rate increases on monthly repayments, and therefore house prices, may be larger than in the past.
“At the moment, however, interest rates appear likely to remain at their current level until well into 2011. Any increases thereafter are likely to be relatively gradual, leaving variable rate borrowers with some time to switch to fixed rates if they desire greater certainty over their monthly repayments.”
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House prices double-dip 'on the cards'
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September 01,2010
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A fresh warning has been sounded over a potential house prices double-dip, as Bank of England figures provided more evidence that the house price rally has run out of steam.
Lending figures for July showed mortgage approvals for homebuyers still remain stuck at just over 50% of the long-term average.
And economists suggest that with momentum lost in the property market, prices should slip again.
However, they say the heavy falls seen in 2008 are unlikely to be repeated and London and the South East should fare much better than the rest of the country.
After hitting record lows in late 2008 and then rising throughout 2009, the number of mortgages being approved for those buying a home has steadied at less than 50,000 per month this year.
House prices rallied as property market activity and homebuyer mortgage approvals rose, but with the market now running out of steam, Andrew Goodwin, senior economic advisor to the influential Ernst & Young ITEM Club, has said prices should slip again.
He said: 'This morning's figures provide further confirmation that the housing market is heading for a double dip, with net mortgage lending pretty much flat and the number of mortgage approvals remaining very low.
'The figures for mortgage approvals, a proxy for activity, tend to be well correlated with prices and the latest figures clearly point to falling prices over the second half of this year and into 2011, particularly now that supply shortages have eased.'
Goodwin suggested annual price falls of between 3% and 5% will be seen over the next 12 months, before house price stabilise.
Today's Bank of England lending figures showed 48,722 mortgages approved for house purchase in July, in line with the 48,546 six-month average, but Goodwin pointed out this is well below the ten-year monthly average of about 93,000. Net lending rose by just £100m – down considerably on the £500m seen the month before and £800m six-month average.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at analysts IHS Global Insight, said evidence from the property market has been 'consistently downbeat recently'.
He said: 'Consequently, we continue to suspect that house prices will fall back over the latter months of 2010 and then very likely soften further in 2011.'
Archer forecasts house prices to fall 3% during the second half of this year, followed by a drop of around 5% in 2011. This would be far gentler than the double-digit falls registered by the major house price reports in 2008 and early 2009
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, says the problem for those without a spot-on credit history and big deposit remains difficulty in securing mortgages.
He said: 'A lack of mortgage finance remains a key problem for many borrowers looking to take their first step on the property ladder, with the high deposits required still proving to be an obstacle for many. Uncertainty over the outlook for the market may also be discouraging would-be buyers.'
The warning that austerity measures will now replace economic stimulus is leading homebuyers to be more cautious, according to mortgage brokers. This combined with the knowledge that interest rates must head up at some point is leading to more borrowers taking out fixed rate mortgages rather than cut-price trackers.
Brian Murphy, head of lending at independent mortgage broker Mortgage Advice Bureau, said the mortgage market was stabilising and homebuyer levels could remain low for the rest of the year.
He said: 'The October Spending Review — D-Day for consumer confidence — is approaching fast and many prospective borrowers are understandably being cautious. Only once the full extent of the cuts is known will borrowing levels move more decisively in any one direction.
'The appetite for fixed rate loans has risen consistently throughout the year, which suggests people are being more cautious in the run-up to the Spending Review.'
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House prices double-dip 'on the cards'
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September 01,2010
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A fresh warning has been sounded over a potential house prices double-dip, as Bank of England figures provided more evidence that the house price rally has run out of steam.
Lending figures for July showed mortgage approvals for homebuyers still remain stuck at just over 50% of the long-term average.
And economists suggest that with momentum lost in the property market, prices should slip again.
However, they say the heavy falls seen in 2008 are unlikely to be repeated and London and the South East should fare much better than the rest of the country.
After hitting record lows in late 2008 and then rising throughout 2009, the number of mortgages being approved for those buying a home has steadied at less than 50,000 per month this year.
House prices rallied as property market activity and homebuyer mortgage approvals rose, but with the market now running out of steam, Andrew Goodwin, senior economic advisor to the influential Ernst & Young ITEM Club, has said prices should slip again.
He said: 'This morning's figures provide further confirmation that the housing market is heading for a double dip, with net mortgage lending pretty much flat and the number of mortgage approvals remaining very low.
'The figures for mortgage approvals, a proxy for activity, tend to be well correlated with prices and the latest figures clearly point to falling prices over the second half of this year and into 2011, particularly now that supply shortages have eased.'
Goodwin suggested annual price falls of between 3% and 5% will be seen over the next 12 months, before house price stabilise.
Today's Bank of England lending figures showed 48,722 mortgages approved for house purchase in July, in line with the 48,546 six-month average, but Goodwin pointed out this is well below the ten-year monthly average of about 93,000. Net lending rose by just £100m – down considerably on the £500m seen the month before and £800m six-month average.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at analysts IHS Global Insight, said evidence from the property market has been 'consistently downbeat recently'.
He said: 'Consequently, we continue to suspect that house prices will fall back over the latter months of 2010 and then very likely soften further in 2011.'
Archer forecasts house prices to fall 3% during the second half of this year, followed by a drop of around 5% in 2011. This would be far gentler than the double-digit falls registered by the major house price reports in 2008 and early 2009
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, says the problem for those without a spot-on credit history and big deposit remains difficulty in securing mortgages.
He said: 'A lack of mortgage finance remains a key problem for many borrowers looking to take their first step on the property ladder, with the high deposits required still proving to be an obstacle for many. Uncertainty over the outlook for the market may also be discouraging would-be buyers.'
The warning that austerity measures will now replace economic stimulus is leading homebuyers to be more cautious, according to mortgage brokers. This combined with the knowledge that interest rates must head up at some point is leading to more borrowers taking out fixed rate mortgages rather than cut-price trackers.
Brian Murphy, head of lending at independent mortgage broker Mortgage Advice Bureau, said the mortgage market was stabilising and homebuyer levels could remain low for the rest of the year.
He said: 'The October Spending Review — D-Day for consumer confidence — is approaching fast and many prospective borrowers are understandably being cautious. Only once the full extent of the cuts is known will borrowing levels move more decisively in any one direction.
'The appetite for fixed rate loans has risen consistently throughout the year, which suggests people are being more cautious in the run-up to the Spending Review.'
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House prices double-dip 'on the cards'
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September 01,2010
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A fresh warning has been sounded over a potential house prices double-dip, as Bank of England figures provided more evidence that the house price rally has run out of steam.
Lending figures for July showed mortgage approvals for homebuyers still remain stuck at just over 50% of the long-term average.
And economists suggest that with momentum lost in the property market, prices should slip again.
However, they say the heavy falls seen in 2008 are unlikely to be repeated and London and the South East should fare much better than the rest of the country.
After hitting record lows in late 2008 and then rising throughout 2009, the number of mortgages being approved for those buying a home has steadied at less than 50,000 per month this year.
House prices rallied as property market activity and homebuyer mortgage approvals rose, but with the market now running out of steam, Andrew Goodwin, senior economic advisor to the influential Ernst & Young ITEM Club, has said prices should slip again.
He said: 'This morning's figures provide further confirmation that the housing market is heading for a double dip, with net mortgage lending pretty much flat and the number of mortgage approvals remaining very low.
'The figures for mortgage approvals, a proxy for activity, tend to be well correlated with prices and the latest figures clearly point to falling prices over the second half of this year and into 2011, particularly now that supply shortages have eased.'
Goodwin suggested annual price falls of between 3% and 5% will be seen over the next 12 months, before house price stabilise.
Today's Bank of England lending figures showed 48,722 mortgages approved for house purchase in July, in line with the 48,546 six-month average, but Goodwin pointed out this is well below the ten-year monthly average of about 93,000. Net lending rose by just £100m – down considerably on the £500m seen the month before and £800m six-month average.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at analysts IHS Global Insight, said evidence from the property market has been 'consistently downbeat recently'.
He said: 'Consequently, we continue to suspect that house prices will fall back over the latter months of 2010 and then very likely soften further in 2011.'
Archer forecasts house prices to fall 3% during the second half of this year, followed by a drop of around 5% in 2011. This would be far gentler than the double-digit falls registered by the major house price reports in 2008 and early 2009
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, says the problem for those without a spot-on credit history and big deposit remains difficulty in securing mortgages.
He said: 'A lack of mortgage finance remains a key problem for many borrowers looking to take their first step on the property ladder, with the high deposits required still proving to be an obstacle for many. Uncertainty over the outlook for the market may also be discouraging would-be buyers.'
The warning that austerity measures will now replace economic stimulus is leading homebuyers to be more cautious, according to mortgage brokers. This combined with the knowledge that interest rates must head up at some point is leading to more borrowers taking out fixed rate mortgages rather than cut-price trackers.
Brian Murphy, head of lending at independent mortgage broker Mortgage Advice Bureau, said the mortgage market was stabilising and homebuyer levels could remain low for the rest of the year.
He said: 'The October Spending Review — D-Day for consumer confidence — is approaching fast and many prospective borrowers are understandably being cautious. Only once the full extent of the cuts is known will borrowing levels move more decisively in any one direction.
'The appetite for fixed rate loans has risen consistently throughout the year, which suggests people are being more cautious in the run-up to the Spending Review.'
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House prices double-dip 'on the cards'
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September 01,2010
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A fresh warning has been sounded over a potential house prices double-dip, as Bank of England figures provided more evidence that the house price rally has run out of steam.
Lending figures for July showed mortgage approvals for homebuyers still remain stuck at just over 50% of the long-term average.
And economists suggest that with momentum lost in the property market, prices should slip again.
However, they say the heavy falls seen in 2008 are unlikely to be repeated and London and the South East should fare much better than the rest of the country.
After hitting record lows in late 2008 and then rising throughout 2009, the number of mortgages being approved for those buying a home has steadied at less than 50,000 per month this year.
House prices rallied as property market activity and homebuyer mortgage approvals rose, but with the market now running out of steam, Andrew Goodwin, senior economic advisor to the influential Ernst & Young ITEM Club, has said prices should slip again.
He said: 'This morning's figures provide further confirmation that the housing market is heading for a double dip, with net mortgage lending pretty much flat and the number of mortgage approvals remaining very low.
'The figures for mortgage approvals, a proxy for activity, tend to be well correlated with prices and the latest figures clearly point to falling prices over the second half of this year and into 2011, particularly now that supply shortages have eased.'
Goodwin suggested annual price falls of between 3% and 5% will be seen over the next 12 months, before house price stabilise.
Today's Bank of England lending figures showed 48,722 mortgages approved for house purchase in July, in line with the 48,546 six-month average, but Goodwin pointed out this is well below the ten-year monthly average of about 93,000. Net lending rose by just £100m – down considerably on the £500m seen the month before and £800m six-month average.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at analysts IHS Global Insight, said evidence from the property market has been 'consistently downbeat recently'.
He said: 'Consequently, we continue to suspect that house prices will fall back over the latter months of 2010 and then very likely soften further in 2011.'
Archer forecasts house prices to fall 3% during the second half of this year, followed by a drop of around 5% in 2011. This would be far gentler than the double-digit falls registered by the major house price reports in 2008 and early 2009
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, says the problem for those without a spot-on credit history and big deposit remains difficulty in securing mortgages.
He said: 'A lack of mortgage finance remains a key problem for many borrowers looking to take their first step on the property ladder, with the high deposits required still proving to be an obstacle for many. Uncertainty over the outlook for the market may also be discouraging would-be buyers.'
The warning that austerity measures will now replace economic stimulus is leading homebuyers to be more cautious, according to mortgage brokers. This combined with the knowledge that interest rates must head up at some point is leading to more borrowers taking out fixed rate mortgages rather than cut-price trackers.
Brian Murphy, head of lending at independent mortgage broker Mortgage Advice Bureau, said the mortgage market was stabilising and homebuyer levels could remain low for the rest of the year.
He said: 'The October Spending Review — D-Day for consumer confidence — is approaching fast and many prospective borrowers are understandably being cautious. Only once the full extent of the cuts is known will borrowing levels move more decisively in any one direction.
'The appetite for fixed rate loans has risen consistently throughout the year, which suggests people are being more cautious in the run-up to the Spending Review.'
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House prices double-dip 'on the cards'
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September 01,2010
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A fresh warning has been sounded over a potential house prices double-dip, as Bank of England figures provided more evidence that the house price rally has run out of steam.
Lending figures for July showed mortgage approvals for homebuyers still remain stuck at just over 50% of the long-term average.
And economists suggest that with momentum lost in the property market, prices should slip again.
However, they say the heavy falls seen in 2008 are unlikely to be repeated and London and the South East should fare much better than the rest of the country.
After hitting record lows in late 2008 and then rising throughout 2009, the number of mortgages being approved for those buying a home has steadied at less than 50,000 per month this year.
House prices rallied as property market activity and homebuyer mortgage approvals rose, but with the market now running out of steam, Andrew Goodwin, senior economic advisor to the influential Ernst & Young ITEM Club, has said prices should slip again.
He said: 'This morning's figures provide further confirmation that the housing market is heading for a double dip, with net mortgage lending pretty much flat and the number of mortgage approvals remaining very low.
'The figures for mortgage approvals, a proxy for activity, tend to be well correlated with prices and the latest figures clearly point to falling prices over the second half of this year and into 2011, particularly now that supply shortages have eased.'
Goodwin suggested annual price falls of between 3% and 5% will be seen over the next 12 months, before house price stabilise.
Today's Bank of England lending figures showed 48,722 mortgages approved for house purchase in July, in line with the 48,546 six-month average, but Goodwin pointed out this is well below the ten-year monthly average of about 93,000. Net lending rose by just £100m – down considerably on the £500m seen the month before and £800m six-month average.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at analysts IHS Global Insight, said evidence from the property market has been 'consistently downbeat recently'.
He said: 'Consequently, we continue to suspect that house prices will fall back over the latter months of 2010 and then very likely soften further in 2011.'
Archer forecasts house prices to fall 3% during the second half of this year, followed by a drop of around 5% in 2011. This would be far gentler than the double-digit falls registered by the major house price reports in 2008 and early 2009
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, says the problem for those without a spot-on credit history and big deposit remains difficulty in securing mortgages.
He said: 'A lack of mortgage finance remains a key problem for many borrowers looking to take their first step on the property ladder, with the high deposits required still proving to be an obstacle for many. Uncertainty over the outlook for the market may also be discouraging would-be buyers.'
The warning that austerity measures will now replace economic stimulus is leading homebuyers to be more cautious, according to mortgage brokers. This combined with the knowledge that interest rates must head up at some point is leading to more borrowers taking out fixed rate mortgages rather than cut-price trackers.
Brian Murphy, head of lending at independent mortgage broker Mortgage Advice Bureau, said the mortgage market was stabilising and homebuyer levels could remain low for the rest of the year.
He said: 'The October Spending Review — D-Day for consumer confidence — is approaching fast and many prospective borrowers are understandably being cautious. Only once the full extent of the cuts is known will borrowing levels move more decisively in any one direction.
'The appetite for fixed rate loans has risen consistently throughout the year, which suggests people are being more cautious in the run-up to the Spending Review.'
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House prices double-dip 'on the cards'
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September 01,2010
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A fresh warning has been sounded over a potential house prices double-dip, as Bank of England figures provided more evidence that the house price rally has run out of steam.
Lending figures for July showed mortgage approvals for homebuyers still remain stuck at just over 50% of the long-term average.
And economists suggest that with momentum lost in the property market, prices should slip again.
However, they say the heavy falls seen in 2008 are unlikely to be repeated and London and the South East should fare much better than the rest of the country.
After hitting record lows in late 2008 and then rising throughout 2009, the number of mortgages being approved for those buying a home has steadied at less than 50,000 per month this year.
House prices rallied as property market activity and homebuyer mortgage approvals rose, but with the market now running out of steam, Andrew Goodwin, senior economic advisor to the influential Ernst & Young ITEM Club, has said prices should slip again.
He said: 'This morning's figures provide further confirmation that the housing market is heading for a double dip, with net mortgage lending pretty much flat and the number of mortgage approvals remaining very low.
'The figures for mortgage approvals, a proxy for activity, tend to be well correlated with prices and the latest figures clearly point to falling prices over the second half of this year and into 2011, particularly now that supply shortages have eased.'
Goodwin suggested annual price falls of between 3% and 5% will be seen over the next 12 months, before house price stabilise.
Today's Bank of England lending figures showed 48,722 mortgages approved for house purchase in July, in line with the 48,546 six-month average, but Goodwin pointed out this is well below the ten-year monthly average of about 93,000. Net lending rose by just £100m – down considerably on the £500m seen the month before and £800m six-month average.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at analysts IHS Global Insight, said evidence from the property market has been 'consistently downbeat recently'.
He said: 'Consequently, we continue to suspect that house prices will fall back over the latter months of 2010 and then very likely soften further in 2011.'
Archer forecasts house prices to fall 3% during the second half of this year, followed by a drop of around 5% in 2011. This would be far gentler than the double-digit falls registered by the major house price reports in 2008 and early 2009
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, says the problem for those without a spot-on credit history and big deposit remains difficulty in securing mortgages.
He said: 'A lack of mortgage finance remains a key problem for many borrowers looking to take their first step on the property ladder, with the high deposits required still proving to be an obstacle for many. Uncertainty over the outlook for the market may also be discouraging would-be buyers.'
The warning that austerity measures will now replace economic stimulus is leading homebuyers to be more cautious, according to mortgage brokers. This combined with the knowledge that interest rates must head up at some point is leading to more borrowers taking out fixed rate mortgages rather than cut-price trackers.
Brian Murphy, head of lending at independent mortgage broker Mortgage Advice Bureau, said the mortgage market was stabilising and homebuyer levels could remain low for the rest of the year.
He said: 'The October Spending Review — D-Day for consumer confidence — is approaching fast and many prospective borrowers are understandably being cautious. Only once the full extent of the cuts is known will borrowing levels move more decisively in any one direction.
'The appetite for fixed rate loans has risen consistently throughout the year, which suggests people are being more cautious in the run-up to the Spending Review.'
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House prices double-dip 'on the cards'
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|
September 01,2010
|
|
|
|
A fresh warning has been sounded over a potential house prices double-dip, as Bank of England figures provided more evidence that the house price rally has run out of steam.
Lending figures for July showed mortgage approvals for homebuyers still remain stuck at just over 50% of the long-term average.
And economists suggest that with momentum lost in the property market, prices should slip again.
However, they say the heavy falls seen in 2008 are unlikely to be repeated and London and the South East should fare much better than the rest of the country.
After hitting record lows in late 2008 and then rising throughout 2009, the number of mortgages being approved for those buying a home has steadied at less than 50,000 per month this year.
House prices rallied as property market activity and homebuyer mortgage approvals rose, but with the market now running out of steam, Andrew Goodwin, senior economic advisor to the influential Ernst & Young ITEM Club, has said prices should slip again.
He said: 'This morning's figures provide further confirmation that the housing market is heading for a double dip, with net mortgage lending pretty much flat and the number of mortgage approvals remaining very low.
'The figures for mortgage approvals, a proxy for activity, tend to be well correlated with prices and the latest figures clearly point to falling prices over the second half of this year and into 2011, particularly now that supply shortages have eased.'
Goodwin suggested annual price falls of between 3% and 5% will be seen over the next 12 months, before house price stabilise.
Today's Bank of England lending figures showed 48,722 mortgages approved for house purchase in July, in line with the 48,546 six-month average, but Goodwin pointed out this is well below the ten-year monthly average of about 93,000. Net lending rose by just £100m – down considerably on the £500m seen the month before and £800m six-month average.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at analysts IHS Global Insight, said evidence from the property market has been 'consistently downbeat recently'.
He said: 'Consequently, we continue to suspect that house prices will fall back over the latter months of 2010 and then very likely soften further in 2011.'
Archer forecasts house prices to fall 3% during the second half of this year, followed by a drop of around 5% in 2011. This would be far gentler than the double-digit falls registered by the major house price reports in 2008 and early 2009
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, says the problem for those without a spot-on credit history and big deposit remains difficulty in securing mortgages.
He said: 'A lack of mortgage finance remains a key problem for many borrowers looking to take their first step on the property ladder, with the high deposits required still proving to be an obstacle for many. Uncertainty over the outlook for the market may also be discouraging would-be buyers.'
The warning that austerity measures will now replace economic stimulus is leading homebuyers to be more cautious, according to mortgage brokers. This combined with the knowledge that interest rates must head up at some point is leading to more borrowers taking out fixed rate mortgages rather than cut-price trackers.
Brian Murphy, head of lending at independent mortgage broker Mortgage Advice Bureau, said the mortgage market was stabilising and homebuyer levels could remain low for the rest of the year.
He said: 'The October Spending Review — D-Day for consumer confidence — is approaching fast and many prospective borrowers are understandably being cautious. Only once the full extent of the cuts is known will borrowing levels move more decisively in any one direction.
'The appetite for fixed rate loans has risen consistently throughout the year, which suggests people are being more cautious in the run-up to the Spending Review.'
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|
House prices double-dip 'on the cards'
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|
September 01,2010
|
|
|
|
A fresh warning has been sounded over a potential house prices double-dip, as Bank of England figures provided more evidence that the house price rally has run out of steam.
Lending figures for July showed mortgage approvals for homebuyers still remain stuck at just over 50% of the long-term average.
And economists suggest that with momentum lost in the property market, prices should slip again.
However, they say the heavy falls seen in 2008 are unlikely to be repeated and London and the South East should fare much better than the rest of the country.
After hitting record lows in late 2008 and then rising throughout 2009, the number of mortgages being approved for those buying a home has steadied at less than 50,000 per month this year.
House prices rallied as property market activity and homebuyer mortgage approvals rose, but with the market now running out of steam, Andrew Goodwin, senior economic advisor to the influential Ernst & Young ITEM Club, has said prices should slip again.
He said: 'This morning's figures provide further confirmation that the housing market is heading for a double dip, with net mortgage lending pretty much flat and the number of mortgage approvals remaining very low.
'The figures for mortgage approvals, a proxy for activity, tend to be well correlated with prices and the latest figures clearly point to falling prices over the second half of this year and into 2011, particularly now that supply shortages have eased.'
Goodwin suggested annual price falls of between 3% and 5% will be seen over the next 12 months, before house price stabilise.
Today's Bank of England lending figures showed 48,722 mortgages approved for house purchase in July, in line with the 48,546 six-month average, but Goodwin pointed out this is well below the ten-year monthly average of about 93,000. Net lending rose by just £100m – down considerably on the £500m seen the month before and £800m six-month average.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at analysts IHS Global Insight, said evidence from the property market has been 'consistently downbeat recently'.
He said: 'Consequently, we continue to suspect that house prices will fall back over the latter months of 2010 and then very likely soften further in 2011.'
Archer forecasts house prices to fall 3% during the second half of this year, followed by a drop of around 5% in 2011. This would be far gentler than the double-digit falls registered by the major house price reports in 2008 and early 2009
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, says the problem for those without a spot-on credit history and big deposit remains difficulty in securing mortgages.
He said: 'A lack of mortgage finance remains a key problem for many borrowers looking to take their first step on the property ladder, with the high deposits required still proving to be an obstacle for many. Uncertainty over the outlook for the market may also be discouraging would-be buyers.'
The warning that austerity measures will now replace economic stimulus is leading homebuyers to be more cautious, according to mortgage brokers. This combined with the knowledge that interest rates must head up at some point is leading to more borrowers taking out fixed rate mortgages rather than cut-price trackers.
Brian Murphy, head of lending at independent mortgage broker Mortgage Advice Bureau, said the mortgage market was stabilising and homebuyer levels could remain low for the rest of the year.
He said: 'The October Spending Review — D-Day for consumer confidence — is approaching fast and many prospective borrowers are understandably being cautious. Only once the full extent of the cuts is known will borrowing levels move more decisively in any one direction.
'The appetite for fixed rate loans has risen consistently throughout the year, which suggests people are being more cautious in the run-up to the Spending Review.'
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|
House prices double-dip 'on the cards'
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|
September 01,2010
|
|
|
|
A fresh warning has been sounded over a potential house prices double-dip, as Bank of England figures provided more evidence that the house price rally has run out of steam.
Lending figures for July showed mortgage approvals for homebuyers still remain stuck at just over 50% of the long-term average.
And economists suggest that with momentum lost in the property market, prices should slip again.
However, they say the heavy falls seen in 2008 are unlikely to be repeated and London and the South East should fare much better than the rest of the country.
After hitting record lows in late 2008 and then rising throughout 2009, the number of mortgages being approved for those buying a home has steadied at less than 50,000 per month this year.
House prices rallied as property market activity and homebuyer mortgage approvals rose, but with the market now running out of steam, Andrew Goodwin, senior economic advisor to the influential Ernst & Young ITEM Club, has said prices should slip again.
He said: 'This morning's figures provide further confirmation that the housing market is heading for a double dip, with net mortgage lending pretty much flat and the number of mortgage approvals remaining very low.
'The figures for mortgage approvals, a proxy for activity, tend to be well correlated with prices and the latest figures clearly point to falling prices over the second half of this year and into 2011, particularly now that supply shortages have eased.'
Goodwin suggested annual price falls of between 3% and 5% will be seen over the next 12 months, before house price stabilise.
Today's Bank of England lending figures showed 48,722 mortgages approved for house purchase in July, in line with the 48,546 six-month average, but Goodwin pointed out this is well below the ten-year monthly average of about 93,000. Net lending rose by just £100m – down considerably on the £500m seen the month before and £800m six-month average.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at analysts IHS Global Insight, said evidence from the property market has been 'consistently downbeat recently'.
He said: 'Consequently, we continue to suspect that house prices will fall back over the latter months of 2010 and then very likely soften further in 2011.'
Archer forecasts house prices to fall 3% during the second half of this year, followed by a drop of around 5% in 2011. This would be far gentler than the double-digit falls registered by the major house price reports in 2008 and early 2009
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, says the problem for those without a spot-on credit history and big deposit remains difficulty in securing mortgages.
He said: 'A lack of mortgage finance remains a key problem for many borrowers looking to take their first step on the property ladder, with the high deposits required still proving to be an obstacle for many. Uncertainty over the outlook for the market may also be discouraging would-be buyers.'
The warning that austerity measures will now replace economic stimulus is leading homebuyers to be more cautious, according to mortgage brokers. This combined with the knowledge that interest rates must head up at some point is leading to more borrowers taking out fixed rate mortgages rather than cut-price trackers.
Brian Murphy, head of lending at independent mortgage broker Mortgage Advice Bureau, said the mortgage market was stabilising and homebuyer levels could remain low for the rest of the year.
He said: 'The October Spending Review — D-Day for consumer confidence — is approaching fast and many prospective borrowers are understandably being cautious. Only once the full extent of the cuts is known will borrowing levels move more decisively in any one direction.
'The appetite for fixed rate loans has risen consistently throughout the year, which suggests people are being more cautious in the run-up to the Spending Review.'
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House prices double-dip 'on the cards'
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|
September 01,2010
|
|
|
|
A fresh warning has been sounded over a potential house prices double-dip, as Bank of England figures provided more evidence that the house price rally has run out of steam.
Lending figures for July showed mortgage approvals for homebuyers still remain stuck at just over 50% of the long-term average.
And economists suggest that with momentum lost in the property market, prices should slip again.
However, they say the heavy falls seen in 2008 are unlikely to be repeated and London and the South East should fare much better than the rest of the country.
After hitting record lows in late 2008 and then rising throughout 2009, the number of mortgages being approved for those buying a home has steadied at less than 50,000 per month this year.
House prices rallied as property market activity and homebuyer mortgage approvals rose, but with the market now running out of steam, Andrew Goodwin, senior economic advisor to the influential Ernst & Young ITEM Club, has said prices should slip again.
He said: 'This morning's figures provide further confirmation that the housing market is heading for a double dip, with net mortgage lending pretty much flat and the number of mortgage approvals remaining very low.
'The figures for mortgage approvals, a proxy for activity, tend to be well correlated with prices and the latest figures clearly point to falling prices over the second half of this year and into 2011, particularly now that supply shortages have eased.'
Goodwin suggested annual price falls of between 3% and 5% will be seen over the next 12 months, before house price stabilise.
Today's Bank of England lending figures showed 48,722 mortgages approved for house purchase in July, in line with the 48,546 six-month average, but Goodwin pointed out this is well below the ten-year monthly average of about 93,000. Net lending rose by just £100m – down considerably on the £500m seen the month before and £800m six-month average.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at analysts IHS Global Insight, said evidence from the property market has been 'consistently downbeat recently'.
He said: 'Consequently, we continue to suspect that house prices will fall back over the latter months of 2010 and then very likely soften further in 2011.'
Archer forecasts house prices to fall 3% during the second half of this year, followed by a drop of around 5% in 2011. This would be far gentler than the double-digit falls registered by the major house price reports in 2008 and early 2009
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, says the problem for those without a spot-on credit history and big deposit remains difficulty in securing mortgages.
He said: 'A lack of mortgage finance remains a key problem for many borrowers looking to take their first step on the property ladder, with the high deposits required still proving to be an obstacle for many. Uncertainty over the outlook for the market may also be discouraging would-be buyers.'
The warning that austerity measures will now replace economic stimulus is leading homebuyers to be more cautious, according to mortgage brokers. This combined with the knowledge that interest rates must head up at some point is leading to more borrowers taking out fixed rate mortgages rather than cut-price trackers.
Brian Murphy, head of lending at independent mortgage broker Mortgage Advice Bureau, said the mortgage market was stabilising and homebuyer levels could remain low for the rest of the year.
He said: 'The October Spending Review — D-Day for consumer confidence — is approaching fast and many prospective borrowers are understandably being cautious. Only once the full extent of the cuts is known will borrowing levels move more decisively in any one direction.
'The appetite for fixed rate loans has risen consistently throughout the year, which suggests people are being more cautious in the run-up to the Spending Review.'
|
|
House prices double-dip 'on the cards'
|
|
September 01,2010
|
|
|
|
A fresh warning has been sounded over a potential house prices double-dip, as Bank of England figures provided more evidence that the house price rally has run out of steam.
Lending figures for July showed mortgage approvals for homebuyers still remain stuck at just over 50% of the long-term average.
And economists suggest that with momentum lost in the property market, prices should slip again.
However, they say the heavy falls seen in 2008 are unlikely to be repeated and London and the South East should fare much better than the rest of the country.
After hitting record lows in late 2008 and then rising throughout 2009, the number of mortgages being approved for those buying a home has steadied at less than 50,000 per month this year.
House prices rallied as property market activity and homebuyer mortgage approvals rose, but with the market now running out of steam, Andrew Goodwin, senior economic advisor to the influential Ernst & Young ITEM Club, has said prices should slip again.
He said: 'This morning's figures provide further confirmation that the housing market is heading for a double dip, with net mortgage lending pretty much flat and the number of mortgage approvals remaining very low.
'The figures for mortgage approvals, a proxy for activity, tend to be well correlated with prices and the latest figures clearly point to falling prices over the second half of this year and into 2011, particularly now that supply shortages have eased.'
Goodwin suggested annual price falls of between 3% and 5% will be seen over the next 12 months, before house price stabilise.
Today's Bank of England lending figures showed 48,722 mortgages approved for house purchase in July, in line with the 48,546 six-month average, but Goodwin pointed out this is well below the ten-year monthly average of about 93,000. Net lending rose by just £100m – down considerably on the £500m seen the month before and £800m six-month average.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at analysts IHS Global Insight, said evidence from the property market has been 'consistently downbeat recently'.
He said: 'Consequently, we continue to suspect that house prices will fall back over the latter months of 2010 and then very likely soften further in 2011.'
Archer forecasts house prices to fall 3% during the second half of this year, followed by a drop of around 5% in 2011. This would be far gentler than the double-digit falls registered by the major house price reports in 2008 and early 2009
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, says the problem for those without a spot-on credit history and big deposit remains difficulty in securing mortgages.
He said: 'A lack of mortgage finance remains a key problem for many borrowers looking to take their first step on the property ladder, with the high deposits required still proving to be an obstacle for many. Uncertainty over the outlook for the market may also be discouraging would-be buyers.'
The warning that austerity measures will now replace economic stimulus is leading homebuyers to be more cautious, according to mortgage brokers. This combined with the knowledge that interest rates must head up at some point is leading to more borrowers taking out fixed rate mortgages rather than cut-price trackers.
Brian Murphy, head of lending at independent mortgage broker Mortgage Advice Bureau, said the mortgage market was stabilising and homebuyer levels could remain low for the rest of the year.
He said: 'The October Spending Review — D-Day for consumer confidence — is approaching fast and many prospective borrowers are understandably being cautious. Only once the full extent of the cuts is known will borrowing levels move more decisively in any one direction.
'The appetite for fixed rate loans has risen consistently throughout the year, which suggests people are being more cautious in the run-up to the Spending Review.'
|
|
House prices double-dip 'on the cards'
|
|
September 01,2010
|
|
|
|
A fresh warning has been sounded over a potential house prices double-dip, as Bank of England figures provided more evidence that the house price rally has run out of steam.
Lending figures for July showed mortgage approvals for homebuyers still remain stuck at just over 50% of the long-term average.
And economists suggest that with momentum lost in the property market, prices should slip again.
However, they say the heavy falls seen in 2008 are unlikely to be repeated and London and the South East should fare much better than the rest of the country.
After hitting record lows in late 2008 and then rising throughout 2009, the number of mortgages being approved for those buying a home has steadied at less than 50,000 per month this year.
House prices rallied as property market activity and homebuyer mortgage approvals rose, but with the market now running out of steam, Andrew Goodwin, senior economic advisor to the influential Ernst & Young ITEM Club, has said prices should slip again.
He said: 'This morning's figures provide further confirmation that the housing market is heading for a double dip, with net mortgage lending pretty much flat and the number of mortgage approvals remaining very low.
'The figures for mortgage approvals, a proxy for activity, tend to be well correlated with prices and the latest figures clearly point to falling prices over the second half of this year and into 2011, particularly now that supply shortages have eased.'
Goodwin suggested annual price falls of between 3% and 5% will be seen over the next 12 months, before house price stabilise.
Today's Bank of England lending figures showed 48,722 mortgages approved for house purchase in July, in line with the 48,546 six-month average, but Goodwin pointed out this is well below the ten-year monthly average of about 93,000. Net lending rose by just £100m – down considerably on the £500m seen the month before and £800m six-month average.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at analysts IHS Global Insight, said evidence from the property market has been 'consistently downbeat recently'.
He said: 'Consequently, we continue to suspect that house prices will fall back over the latter months of 2010 and then very likely soften further in 2011.'
Archer forecasts house prices to fall 3% during the second half of this year, followed by a drop of around 5% in 2011. This would be far gentler than the double-digit falls registered by the major house price reports in 2008 and early 2009
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, says the problem for those without a spot-on credit history and big deposit remains difficulty in securing mortgages.
He said: 'A lack of mortgage finance remains a key problem for many borrowers looking to take their first step on the property ladder, with the high deposits required still proving to be an obstacle for many. Uncertainty over the outlook for the market may also be discouraging would-be buyers.'
The warning that austerity measures will now replace economic stimulus is leading homebuyers to be more cautious, according to mortgage brokers. This combined with the knowledge that interest rates must head up at some point is leading to more borrowers taking out fixed rate mortgages rather than cut-price trackers.
Brian Murphy, head of lending at independent mortgage broker Mortgage Advice Bureau, said the mortgage market was stabilising and homebuyer levels could remain low for the rest of the year.
He said: 'The October Spending Review — D-Day for consumer confidence — is approaching fast and many prospective borrowers are understandably being cautious. Only once the full extent of the cuts is known will borrowing levels move more decisively in any one direction.
'The appetite for fixed rate loans has risen consistently throughout the year, which suggests people are being more cautious in the run-up to the Spending Review.'
|
|
House prices double-dip 'on the cards'
|
|
September 01,2010
|
|
|
|
A fresh warning has been sounded over a potential house prices double-dip, as Bank of England figures provided more evidence that the house price rally has run out of steam.
Lending figures for July showed mortgage approvals for homebuyers still remain stuck at just over 50% of the long-term average.
And economists suggest that with momentum lost in the property market, prices should slip again.
However, they say the heavy falls seen in 2008 are unlikely to be repeated and London and the South East should fare much better than the rest of the country.
After hitting record lows in late 2008 and then rising throughout 2009, the number of mortgages being approved for those buying a home has steadied at less than 50,000 per month this year.
House prices rallied as property market activity and homebuyer mortgage approvals rose, but with the market now running out of steam, Andrew Goodwin, senior economic advisor to the influential Ernst & Young ITEM Club, has said prices should slip again.
He said: 'This morning's figures provide further confirmation that the housing market is heading for a double dip, with net mortgage lending pretty much flat and the number of mortgage approvals remaining very low.
'The figures for mortgage approvals, a proxy for activity, tend to be well correlated with prices and the latest figures clearly point to falling prices over the second half of this year and into 2011, particularly now that supply shortages have eased.'
Goodwin suggested annual price falls of between 3% and 5% will be seen over the next 12 months, before house price stabilise.
Today's Bank of England lending figures showed 48,722 mortgages approved for house purchase in July, in line with the 48,546 six-month average, but Goodwin pointed out this is well below the ten-year monthly average of about 93,000. Net lending rose by just £100m – down considerably on the £500m seen the month before and £800m six-month average.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at analysts IHS Global Insight, said evidence from the property market has been 'consistently downbeat recently'.
He said: 'Consequently, we continue to suspect that house prices will fall back over the latter months of 2010 and then very likely soften further in 2011.'
Archer forecasts house prices to fall 3% during the second half of this year, followed by a drop of around 5% in 2011. This would be far gentler than the double-digit falls registered by the major house price reports in 2008 and early 2009
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, says the problem for those without a spot-on credit history and big deposit remains difficulty in securing mortgages.
He said: 'A lack of mortgage finance remains a key problem for many borrowers looking to take their first step on the property ladder, with the high deposits required still proving to be an obstacle for many. Uncertainty over the outlook for the market may also be discouraging would-be buyers.'
The warning that austerity measures will now replace economic stimulus is leading homebuyers to be more cautious, according to mortgage brokers. This combined with the knowledge that interest rates must head up at some point is leading to more borrowers taking out fixed rate mortgages rather than cut-price trackers.
Brian Murphy, head of lending at independent mortgage broker Mortgage Advice Bureau, said the mortgage market was stabilising and homebuyer levels could remain low for the rest of the year.
He said: 'The October Spending Review — D-Day for consumer confidence — is approaching fast and many prospective borrowers are understandably being cautious. Only once the full extent of the cuts is known will borrowing levels move more decisively in any one direction.
'The appetite for fixed rate loans has risen consistently throughout the year, which suggests people are being more cautious in the run-up to the Spending Review.'
|
|
House prices double-dip 'on the cards'
|
|
September 01,2010
|
|
|
|
A fresh warning has been sounded over a potential house prices double-dip, as Bank of England figures provided more evidence that the house price rally has run out of steam.
Lending figures for July showed mortgage approvals for homebuyers still remain stuck at just over 50% of the long-term average.
And economists suggest that with momentum lost in the property market, prices should slip again.
However, they say the heavy falls seen in 2008 are unlikely to be repeated and London and the South East should fare much better than the rest of the country.
After hitting record lows in late 2008 and then rising throughout 2009, the number of mortgages being approved for those buying a home has steadied at less than 50,000 per month this year.
House prices rallied as property market activity and homebuyer mortgage approvals rose, but with the market now running out of steam, Andrew Goodwin, senior economic advisor to the influential Ernst & Young ITEM Club, has said prices should slip again.
He said: 'This morning's figures provide further confirmation that the housing market is heading for a double dip, with net mortgage lending pretty much flat and the number of mortgage approvals remaining very low.
'The figures for mortgage approvals, a proxy for activity, tend to be well correlated with prices and the latest figures clearly point to falling prices over the second half of this year and into 2011, particularly now that supply shortages have eased.'
Goodwin suggested annual price falls of between 3% and 5% will be seen over the next 12 months, before house price stabilise.
Today's Bank of England lending figures showed 48,722 mortgages approved for house purchase in July, in line with the 48,546 six-month average, but Goodwin pointed out this is well below the ten-year monthly average of about 93,000. Net lending rose by just £100m – down considerably on the £500m seen the month before and £800m six-month average.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at analysts IHS Global Insight, said evidence from the property market has been 'consistently downbeat recently'.
He said: 'Consequently, we continue to suspect that house prices will fall back over the latter months of 2010 and then very likely soften further in 2011.'
Archer forecasts house prices to fall 3% during the second half of this year, followed by a drop of around 5% in 2011. This would be far gentler than the double-digit falls registered by the major house price reports in 2008 and early 2009
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, says the problem for those without a spot-on credit history and big deposit remains difficulty in securing mortgages.
He said: 'A lack of mortgage finance remains a key problem for many borrowers looking to take their first step on the property ladder, with the high deposits required still proving to be an obstacle for many. Uncertainty over the outlook for the market may also be discouraging would-be buyers.'
The warning that austerity measures will now replace economic stimulus is leading homebuyers to be more cautious, according to mortgage brokers. This combined with the knowledge that interest rates must head up at some point is leading to more borrowers taking out fixed rate mortgages rather than cut-price trackers.
Brian Murphy, head of lending at independent mortgage broker Mortgage Advice Bureau, said the mortgage market was stabilising and homebuyer levels could remain low for the rest of the year.
He said: 'The October Spending Review — D-Day for consumer confidence — is approaching fast and many prospective borrowers are understandably being cautious. Only once the full extent of the cuts is known will borrowing levels move more decisively in any one direction.
'The appetite for fixed rate loans has risen consistently throughout the year, which suggests people are being more cautious in the run-up to the Spending Review.'
|
|
House prices double-dip 'on the cards'
|
|
September 01,2010
|
|
|
|
A fresh warning has been sounded over a potential house prices double-dip, as Bank of England figures provided more evidence that the house price rally has run out of steam.
Lending figures for July showed mortgage approvals for homebuyers still remain stuck at just over 50% of the long-term average.
And economists suggest that with momentum lost in the property market, prices should slip again.
However, they say the heavy falls seen in 2008 are unlikely to be repeated and London and the South East should fare much better than the rest of the country.
After hitting record lows in late 2008 and then rising throughout 2009, the number of mortgages being approved for those buying a home has steadied at less than 50,000 per month this year.
House prices rallied as property market activity and homebuyer mortgage approvals rose, but with the market now running out of steam, Andrew Goodwin, senior economic advisor to the influential Ernst & Young ITEM Club, has said prices should slip again.
He said: 'This morning's figures provide further confirmation that the housing market is heading for a double dip, with net mortgage lending pretty much flat and the number of mortgage approvals remaining very low.
'The figures for mortgage approvals, a proxy for activity, tend to be well correlated with prices and the latest figures clearly point to falling prices over the second half of this year and into 2011, particularly now that supply shortages have eased.'
Goodwin suggested annual price falls of between 3% and 5% will be seen over the next 12 months, before house price stabilise.
Today's Bank of England lending figures showed 48,722 mortgages approved for house purchase in July, in line with the 48,546 six-month average, but Goodwin pointed out this is well below the ten-year monthly average of about 93,000. Net lending rose by just £100m – down considerably on the £500m seen the month before and £800m six-month average.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at analysts IHS Global Insight, said evidence from the property market has been 'consistently downbeat recently'.
He said: 'Consequently, we continue to suspect that house prices will fall back over the latter months of 2010 and then very likely soften further in 2011.'
Archer forecasts house prices to fall 3% during the second half of this year, followed by a drop of around 5% in 2011. This would be far gentler than the double-digit falls registered by the major house price reports in 2008 and early 2009
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, says the problem for those without a spot-on credit history and big deposit remains difficulty in securing mortgages.
He said: 'A lack of mortgage finance remains a key problem for many borrowers looking to take their first step on the property ladder, with the high deposits required still proving to be an obstacle for many. Uncertainty over the outlook for the market may also be discouraging would-be buyers.'
The warning that austerity measures will now replace economic stimulus is leading homebuyers to be more cautious, according to mortgage brokers. This combined with the knowledge that interest rates must head up at some point is leading to more borrowers taking out fixed rate mortgages rather than cut-price trackers.
Brian Murphy, head of lending at independent mortgage broker Mortgage Advice Bureau, said the mortgage market was stabilising and homebuyer levels could remain low for the rest of the year.
He said: 'The October Spending Review — D-Day for consumer confidence — is approaching fast and many prospective borrowers are understandably being cautious. Only once the full extent of the cuts is known will borrowing levels move more decisively in any one direction.
'The appetite for fixed rate loans has risen consistently throughout the year, which suggests people are being more cautious in the run-up to the Spending Review.'
|
|
House prices double-dip 'on the cards'
|
|
September 01,2010
|
|
|
|
A fresh warning has been sounded over a potential house prices double-dip, as Bank of England figures provided more evidence that the house price rally has run out of steam.
Lending figures for July showed mortgage approvals for homebuyers still remain stuck at just over 50% of the long-term average.
And economists suggest that with momentum lost in the property market, prices should slip again.
However, they say the heavy falls seen in 2008 are unlikely to be repeated and London and the South East should fare much better than the rest of the country.
After hitting record lows in late 2008 and then rising throughout 2009, the number of mortgages being approved for those buying a home has steadied at less than 50,000 per month this year.
House prices rallied as property market activity and homebuyer mortgage approvals rose, but with the market now running out of steam, Andrew Goodwin, senior economic advisor to the influential Ernst & Young ITEM Club, has said prices should slip again.
He said: 'This morning's figures provide further confirmation that the housing market is heading for a double dip, with net mortgage lending pretty much flat and the number of mortgage approvals remaining very low.
'The figures for mortgage approvals, a proxy for activity, tend to be well correlated with prices and the latest figures clearly point to falling prices over the second half of this year and into 2011, particularly now that supply shortages have eased.'
Goodwin suggested annual price falls of between 3% and 5% will be seen over the next 12 months, before house price stabilise.
Today's Bank of England lending figures showed 48,722 mortgages approved for house purchase in July, in line with the 48,546 six-month average, but Goodwin pointed out this is well below the ten-year monthly average of about 93,000. Net lending rose by just £100m – down considerably on the £500m seen the month before and £800m six-month average.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at analysts IHS Global Insight, said evidence from the property market has been 'consistently downbeat recently'.
He said: 'Consequently, we continue to suspect that house prices will fall back over the latter months of 2010 and then very likely soften further in 2011.'
Archer forecasts house prices to fall 3% during the second half of this year, followed by a drop of around 5% in 2011. This would be far gentler than the double-digit falls registered by the major house price reports in 2008 and early 2009
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, says the problem for those without a spot-on credit history and big deposit remains difficulty in securing mortgages.
He said: 'A lack of mortgage finance remains a key problem for many borrowers looking to take their first step on the property ladder, with the high deposits required still proving to be an obstacle for many. Uncertainty over the outlook for the market may also be discouraging would-be buyers.'
The warning that austerity measures will now replace economic stimulus is leading homebuyers to be more cautious, according to mortgage brokers. This combined with the knowledge that interest rates must head up at some point is leading to more borrowers taking out fixed rate mortgages rather than cut-price trackers.
Brian Murphy, head of lending at independent mortgage broker Mortgage Advice Bureau, said the mortgage market was stabilising and homebuyer levels could remain low for the rest of the year.
He said: 'The October Spending Review — D-Day for consumer confidence — is approaching fast and many prospective borrowers are understandably being cautious. Only once the full extent of the cuts is known will borrowing levels move more decisively in any one direction.
'The appetite for fixed rate loans has risen consistently throughout the year, which suggests people are being more cautious in the run-up to the Spending Review.'
|
|
House prices double-dip 'on the cards'
|
|
September 01,2010
|
|
|
|
A fresh warning has been sounded over a potential house prices double-dip, as Bank of England figures provided more evidence that the house price rally has run out of steam.
Lending figures for July showed mortgage approvals for homebuyers still remain stuck at just over 50% of the long-term average.
And economists suggest that with momentum lost in the property market, prices should slip again.
However, they say the heavy falls seen in 2008 are unlikely to be repeated and London and the South East should fare much better than the rest of the country.
After hitting record lows in late 2008 and then rising throughout 2009, the number of mortgages being approved for those buying a home has steadied at less than 50,000 per month this year.
House prices rallied as property market activity and homebuyer mortgage approvals rose, but with the market now running out of steam, Andrew Goodwin, senior economic advisor to the influential Ernst & Young ITEM Club, has said prices should slip again.
He said: 'This morning's figures provide further confirmation that the housing market is heading for a double dip, with net mortgage lending pretty much flat and the number of mortgage approvals remaining very low.
'The figures for mortgage approvals, a proxy for activity, tend to be well correlated with prices and the latest figures clearly point to falling prices over the second half of this year and into 2011, particularly now that supply shortages have eased.'
Goodwin suggested annual price falls of between 3% and 5% will be seen over the next 12 months, before house price stabilise.
Today's Bank of England lending figures showed 48,722 mortgages approved for house purchase in July, in line with the 48,546 six-month average, but Goodwin pointed out this is well below the ten-year monthly average of about 93,000. Net lending rose by just £100m – down considerably on the £500m seen the month before and £800m six-month average.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at analysts IHS Global Insight, said evidence from the property market has been 'consistently downbeat recently'.
He said: 'Consequently, we continue to suspect that house prices will fall back over the latter months of 2010 and then very likely soften further in 2011.'
Archer forecasts house prices to fall 3% during the second half of this year, followed by a drop of around 5% in 2011. This would be far gentler than the double-digit falls registered by the major house price reports in 2008 and early 2009
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, says the problem for those without a spot-on credit history and big deposit remains difficulty in securing mortgages.
He said: 'A lack of mortgage finance remains a key problem for many borrowers looking to take their first step on the property ladder, with the high deposits required still proving to be an obstacle for many. Uncertainty over the outlook for the market may also be discouraging would-be buyers.'
The warning that austerity measures will now replace economic stimulus is leading homebuyers to be more cautious, according to mortgage brokers. This combined with the knowledge that interest rates must head up at some point is leading to more borrowers taking out fixed rate mortgages rather than cut-price trackers.
Brian Murphy, head of lending at independent mortgage broker Mortgage Advice Bureau, said the mortgage market was stabilising and homebuyer levels could remain low for the rest of the year.
He said: 'The October Spending Review — D-Day for consumer confidence — is approaching fast and many prospective borrowers are understandably being cautious. Only once the full extent of the cuts is known will borrowing levels move more decisively in any one direction.
'The appetite for fixed rate loans has risen consistently throughout the year, which suggests people are being more cautious in the run-up to the Spending Review.'
|
|
House prices double-dip 'on the cards'
|
|
September 01,2010
|
|
|
|
A fresh warning has been sounded over a potential house prices double-dip, as Bank of England figures provided more evidence that the house price rally has run out of steam.
Lending figures for July showed mortgage approvals for homebuyers still remain stuck at just over 50% of the long-term average.
And economists suggest that with momentum lost in the property market, prices should slip again.
However, they say the heavy falls seen in 2008 are unlikely to be repeated and London and the South East should fare much better than the rest of the country.
After hitting record lows in late 2008 and then rising throughout 2009, the number of mortgages being approved for those buying a home has steadied at less than 50,000 per month this year.
House prices rallied as property market activity and homebuyer mortgage approvals rose, but with the market now running out of steam, Andrew Goodwin, senior economic advisor to the influential Ernst & Young ITEM Club, has said prices should slip again.
He said: 'This morning's figures provide further confirmation that the housing market is heading for a double dip, with net mortgage lending pretty much flat and the number of mortgage approvals remaining very low.
'The figures for mortgage approvals, a proxy for activity, tend to be well correlated with prices and the latest figures clearly point to falling prices over the second half of this year and into 2011, particularly now that supply shortages have eased.'
Goodwin suggested annual price falls of between 3% and 5% will be seen over the next 12 months, before house price stabilise.
Today's Bank of England lending figures showed 48,722 mortgages approved for house purchase in July, in line with the 48,546 six-month average, but Goodwin pointed out this is well below the ten-year monthly average of about 93,000. Net lending rose by just £100m – down considerably on the £500m seen the month before and £800m six-month average.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at analysts IHS Global Insight, said evidence from the property market has been 'consistently downbeat recently'.
He said: 'Consequently, we continue to suspect that house prices will fall back over the latter months of 2010 and then very likely soften further in 2011.'
Archer forecasts house prices to fall 3% during the second half of this year, followed by a drop of around 5% in 2011. This would be far gentler than the double-digit falls registered by the major house price reports in 2008 and early 2009
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, says the problem for those without a spot-on credit history and big deposit remains difficulty in securing mortgages.
He said: 'A lack of mortgage finance remains a key problem for many borrowers looking to take their first step on the property ladder, with the high deposits required still proving to be an obstacle for many. Uncertainty over the outlook for the market may also be discouraging would-be buyers.'
The warning that austerity measures will now replace economic stimulus is leading homebuyers to be more cautious, according to mortgage brokers. This combined with the knowledge that interest rates must head up at some point is leading to more borrowers taking out fixed rate mortgages rather than cut-price trackers.
Brian Murphy, head of lending at independent mortgage broker Mortgage Advice Bureau, said the mortgage market was stabilising and homebuyer levels could remain low for the rest of the year.
He said: 'The October Spending Review — D-Day for consumer confidence — is approaching fast and many prospective borrowers are understandably being cautious. Only once the full extent of the cuts is known will borrowing levels move more decisively in any one direction.
'The appetite for fixed rate loans has risen consistently throughout the year, which suggests people are being more cautious in the run-up to the Spending Review.'
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House prices double-dip 'on the cards'
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September 01,2010
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A fresh warning has been sounded over a potential house prices double-dip, as Bank of England figures provided more evidence that the house price rally has run out of steam.
Lending figures for July showed mortgage approvals for homebuyers still remain stuck at just over 50% of the long-term average.
And economists suggest that with momentum lost in the property market, prices should slip again.
However, they say the heavy falls seen in 2008 are unlikely to be repeated and London and the South East should fare much better than the rest of the country.
After hitting record lows in late 2008 and then rising throughout 2009, the number of mortgages being approved for those buying a home has steadied at less than 50,000 per month this year.
House prices rallied as property market activity and homebuyer mortgage approvals rose, but with the market now running out of steam, Andrew Goodwin, senior economic advisor to the influential Ernst & Young ITEM Club, has said prices should slip again.
He said: 'This morning's figures provide further confirmation that the housing market is heading for a double dip, with net mortgage lending pretty much flat and the number of mortgage approvals remaining very low.
'The figures for mortgage approvals, a proxy for activity, tend to be well correlated with prices and the latest figures clearly point to falling prices over the second half of this year and into 2011, particularly now that supply shortages have eased.'
Goodwin suggested annual price falls of between 3% and 5% will be seen over the next 12 months, before house price stabilise.
Today's Bank of England lending figures showed 48,722 mortgages approved for house purchase in July, in line with the 48,546 six-month average, but Goodwin pointed out this is well below the ten-year monthly average of about 93,000. Net lending rose by just £100m – down considerably on the £500m seen the month before and £800m six-month average.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at analysts IHS Global Insight, said evidence from the property market has been 'consistently downbeat recently'.
He said: 'Consequently, we continue to suspect that house prices will fall back over the latter months of 2010 and then very likely soften further in 2011.'
Archer forecasts house prices to fall 3% during the second half of this year, followed by a drop of around 5% in 2011. This would be far gentler than the double-digit falls registered by the major house price reports in 2008 and early 2009
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, says the problem for those without a spot-on credit history and big deposit remains difficulty in securing mortgages.
He said: 'A lack of mortgage finance remains a key problem for many borrowers looking to take their first step on the property ladder, with the high deposits required still proving to be an obstacle for many. Uncertainty over the outlook for the market may also be discouraging would-be buyers.'
The warning that austerity measures will now replace economic stimulus is leading homebuyers to be more cautious, according to mortgage brokers. This combined with the knowledge that interest rates must head up at some point is leading to more borrowers taking out fixed rate mortgages rather than cut-price trackers.
Brian Murphy, head of lending at independent mortgage broker Mortgage Advice Bureau, said the mortgage market was stabilising and homebuyer levels could remain low for the rest of the year.
He said: 'The October Spending Review — D-Day for consumer confidence — is approaching fast and many prospective borrowers are understandably being cautious. Only once the full extent of the cuts is known will borrowing levels move more decisively in any one direction.
'The appetite for fixed rate loans has risen consistently throughout the year, which suggests people are being more cautious in the run-up to the Spending Review.'
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House prices double-dip 'on the cards'
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September 01,2010
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A fresh warning has been sounded over a potential house prices double-dip, as Bank of England figures provided more evidence that the house price rally has run out of steam.
Lending figures for July showed mortgage approvals for homebuyers still remain stuck at just over 50% of the long-term average.
And economists suggest that with momentum lost in the property market, prices should slip again.
However, they say the heavy falls seen in 2008 are unlikely to be repeated and London and the South East should fare much better than the rest of the country.
After hitting record lows in late 2008 and then rising throughout 2009, the number of mortgages being approved for those buying a home has steadied at less than 50,000 per month this year.
House prices rallied as property market activity and homebuyer mortgage approvals rose, but with the market now running out of steam, Andrew Goodwin, senior economic advisor to the influential Ernst & Young ITEM Club, has said prices should slip again.
He said: 'This morning's figures provide further confirmation that the housing market is heading for a double dip, with net mortgage lending pretty much flat and the number of mortgage approvals remaining very low.
'The figures for mortgage approvals, a proxy for activity, tend to be well correlated with prices and the latest figures clearly point to falling prices over the second half of this year and into 2011, particularly now that supply shortages have eased.'
Goodwin suggested annual price falls of between 3% and 5% will be seen over the next 12 months, before house price stabilise.
Today's Bank of England lending figures showed 48,722 mortgages approved for house purchase in July, in line with the 48,546 six-month average, but Goodwin pointed out this is well below the ten-year monthly average of about 93,000. Net lending rose by just £100m – down considerably on the £500m seen the month before and £800m six-month average.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at analysts IHS Global Insight, said evidence from the property market has been 'consistently downbeat recently'.
He said: 'Consequently, we continue to suspect that house prices will fall back over the latter months of 2010 and then very likely soften further in 2011.'
Archer forecasts house prices to fall 3% during the second half of this year, followed by a drop of around 5% in 2011. This would be far gentler than the double-digit falls registered by the major house price reports in 2008 and early 2009
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, says the problem for those without a spot-on credit history and big deposit remains difficulty in securing mortgages.
He said: 'A lack of mortgage finance remains a key problem for many borrowers looking to take their first step on the property ladder, with the high deposits required still proving to be an obstacle for many. Uncertainty over the outlook for the market may also be discouraging would-be buyers.'
The warning that austerity measures will now replace economic stimulus is leading homebuyers to be more cautious, according to mortgage brokers. This combined with the knowledge that interest rates must head up at some point is leading to more borrowers taking out fixed rate mortgages rather than cut-price trackers.
Brian Murphy, head of lending at independent mortgage broker Mortgage Advice Bureau, said the mortgage market was stabilising and homebuyer levels could remain low for the rest of the year.
He said: 'The October Spending Review — D-Day for consumer confidence — is approaching fast and many prospective borrowers are understandably being cautious. Only once the full extent of the cuts is known will borrowing levels move more decisively in any one direction.
'The appetite for fixed rate loans has risen consistently throughout the year, which suggests people are being more cautious in the run-up to the Spending Review.'
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House prices double-dip 'on the cards'
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|
September 01,2010
|
|
|
|
A fresh warning has been sounded over a potential house prices double-dip, as Bank of England figures provided more evidence that the house price rally has run out of steam.
Lending figures for July showed mortgage approvals for homebuyers still remain stuck at just over 50% of the long-term average.
And economists suggest that with momentum lost in the property market, prices should slip again.
However, they say the heavy falls seen in 2008 are unlikely to be repeated and London and the South East should fare much better than the rest of the country.
After hitting record lows in late 2008 and then rising throughout 2009, the number of mortgages being approved for those buying a home has steadied at less than 50,000 per month this year.
House prices rallied as property market activity and homebuyer mortgage approvals rose, but with the market now running out of steam, Andrew Goodwin, senior economic advisor to the influential Ernst & Young ITEM Club, has said prices should slip again.
He said: 'This morning's figures provide further confirmation that the housing market is heading for a double dip, with net mortgage lending pretty much flat and the number of mortgage approvals remaining very low.
'The figures for mortgage approvals, a proxy for activity, tend to be well correlated with prices and the latest figures clearly point to falling prices over the second half of this year and into 2011, particularly now that supply shortages have eased.'
Goodwin suggested annual price falls of between 3% and 5% will be seen over the next 12 months, before house price stabilise.
Today's Bank of England lending figures showed 48,722 mortgages approved for house purchase in July, in line with the 48,546 six-month average, but Goodwin pointed out this is well below the ten-year monthly average of about 93,000. Net lending rose by just £100m – down considerably on the £500m seen the month before and £800m six-month average.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at analysts IHS Global Insight, said evidence from the property market has been 'consistently downbeat recently'.
He said: 'Consequently, we continue to suspect that house prices will fall back over the latter months of 2010 and then very likely soften further in 2011.'
Archer forecasts house prices to fall 3% during the second half of this year, followed by a drop of around 5% in 2011. This would be far gentler than the double-digit falls registered by the major house price reports in 2008 and early 2009
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, says the problem for those without a spot-on credit history and big deposit remains difficulty in securing mortgages.
He said: 'A lack of mortgage finance remains a key problem for many borrowers looking to take their first step on the property ladder, with the high deposits required still proving to be an obstacle for many. Uncertainty over the outlook for the market may also be discouraging would-be buyers.'
The warning that austerity measures will now replace economic stimulus is leading homebuyers to be more cautious, according to mortgage brokers. This combined with the knowledge that interest rates must head up at some point is leading to more borrowers taking out fixed rate mortgages rather than cut-price trackers.
Brian Murphy, head of lending at independent mortgage broker Mortgage Advice Bureau, said the mortgage market was stabilising and homebuyer levels could remain low for the rest of the year.
He said: 'The October Spending Review — D-Day for consumer confidence — is approaching fast and many prospective borrowers are understandably being cautious. Only once the full extent of the cuts is known will borrowing levels move more decisively in any one direction.
'The appetite for fixed rate loans has risen consistently throughout the year, which suggests people are being more cautious in the run-up to the Spending Review.'
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House prices double-dip 'on the cards'
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|
September 01,2010
|
|
|
|
A fresh warning has been sounded over a potential house prices double-dip, as Bank of England figures provided more evidence that the house price rally has run out of steam.
Lending figures for July showed mortgage approvals for homebuyers still remain stuck at just over 50% of the long-term average.
And economists suggest that with momentum lost in the property market, prices should slip again.
However, they say the heavy falls seen in 2008 are unlikely to be repeated and London and the South East should fare much better than the rest of the country.
After hitting record lows in late 2008 and then rising throughout 2009, the number of mortgages being approved for those buying a home has steadied at less than 50,000 per month this year.
House prices rallied as property market activity and homebuyer mortgage approvals rose, but with the market now running out of steam, Andrew Goodwin, senior economic advisor to the influential Ernst & Young ITEM Club, has said prices should slip again.
He said: 'This morning's figures provide further confirmation that the housing market is heading for a double dip, with net mortgage lending pretty much flat and the number of mortgage approvals remaining very low.
'The figures for mortgage approvals, a proxy for activity, tend to be well correlated with prices and the latest figures clearly point to falling prices over the second half of this year and into 2011, particularly now that supply shortages have eased.'
Goodwin suggested annual price falls of between 3% and 5% will be seen over the next 12 months, before house price stabilise.
Today's Bank of England lending figures showed 48,722 mortgages approved for house purchase in July, in line with the 48,546 six-month average, but Goodwin pointed out this is well below the ten-year monthly average of about 93,000. Net lending rose by just £100m – down considerably on the £500m seen the month before and £800m six-month average.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at analysts IHS Global Insight, said evidence from the property market has been 'consistently downbeat recently'.
He said: 'Consequently, we continue to suspect that house prices will fall back over the latter months of 2010 and then very likely soften further in 2011.'
Archer forecasts house prices to fall 3% during the second half of this year, followed by a drop of around 5% in 2011. This would be far gentler than the double-digit falls registered by the major house price reports in 2008 and early 2009
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, says the problem for those without a spot-on credit history and big deposit remains difficulty in securing mortgages.
He said: 'A lack of mortgage finance remains a key problem for many borrowers looking to take their first step on the property ladder, with the high deposits required still proving to be an obstacle for many. Uncertainty over the outlook for the market may also be discouraging would-be buyers.'
The warning that austerity measures will now replace economic stimulus is leading homebuyers to be more cautious, according to mortgage brokers. This combined with the knowledge that interest rates must head up at some point is leading to more borrowers taking out fixed rate mortgages rather than cut-price trackers.
Brian Murphy, head of lending at independent mortgage broker Mortgage Advice Bureau, said the mortgage market was stabilising and homebuyer levels could remain low for the rest of the year.
He said: 'The October Spending Review — D-Day for consumer confidence — is approaching fast and many prospective borrowers are understandably being cautious. Only once the full extent of the cuts is known will borrowing levels move more decisively in any one direction.
'The appetite for fixed rate loans has risen consistently throughout the year, which suggests people are being more cautious in the run-up to the Spending Review.'
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House prices double-dip 'on the cards'
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|
September 01,2010
|
|
|
|
A fresh warning has been sounded over a potential house prices double-dip, as Bank of England figures provided more evidence that the house price rally has run out of steam.
Lending figures for July showed mortgage approvals for homebuyers still remain stuck at just over 50% of the long-term average.
And economists suggest that with momentum lost in the property market, prices should slip again.
However, they say the heavy falls seen in 2008 are unlikely to be repeated and London and the South East should fare much better than the rest of the country.
After hitting record lows in late 2008 and then rising throughout 2009, the number of mortgages being approved for those buying a home has steadied at less than 50,000 per month this year.
House prices rallied as property market activity and homebuyer mortgage approvals rose, but with the market now running out of steam, Andrew Goodwin, senior economic advisor to the influential Ernst & Young ITEM Club, has said prices should slip again.
He said: 'This morning's figures provide further confirmation that the housing market is heading for a double dip, with net mortgage lending pretty much flat and the number of mortgage approvals remaining very low.
'The figures for mortgage approvals, a proxy for activity, tend to be well correlated with prices and the latest figures clearly point to falling prices over the second half of this year and into 2011, particularly now that supply shortages have eased.'
Goodwin suggested annual price falls of between 3% and 5% will be seen over the next 12 months, before house price stabilise.
Today's Bank of England lending figures showed 48,722 mortgages approved for house purchase in July, in line with the 48,546 six-month average, but Goodwin pointed out this is well below the ten-year monthly average of about 93,000. Net lending rose by just £100m – down considerably on the £500m seen the month before and £800m six-month average.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at analysts IHS Global Insight, said evidence from the property market has been 'consistently downbeat recently'.
He said: 'Consequently, we continue to suspect that house prices will fall back over the latter months of 2010 and then very likely soften further in 2011.'
Archer forecasts house prices to fall 3% during the second half of this year, followed by a drop of around 5% in 2011. This would be far gentler than the double-digit falls registered by the major house price reports in 2008 and early 2009
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, says the problem for those without a spot-on credit history and big deposit remains difficulty in securing mortgages.
He said: 'A lack of mortgage finance remains a key problem for many borrowers looking to take their first step on the property ladder, with the high deposits required still proving to be an obstacle for many. Uncertainty over the outlook for the market may also be discouraging would-be buyers.'
The warning that austerity measures will now replace economic stimulus is leading homebuyers to be more cautious, according to mortgage brokers. This combined with the knowledge that interest rates must head up at some point is leading to more borrowers taking out fixed rate mortgages rather than cut-price trackers.
Brian Murphy, head of lending at independent mortgage broker Mortgage Advice Bureau, said the mortgage market was stabilising and homebuyer levels could remain low for the rest of the year.
He said: 'The October Spending Review — D-Day for consumer confidence — is approaching fast and many prospective borrowers are understandably being cautious. Only once the full extent of the cuts is known will borrowing levels move more decisively in any one direction.
'The appetite for fixed rate loans has risen consistently throughout the year, which suggests people are being more cautious in the run-up to the Spending Review.'
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|
House prices double-dip 'on the cards'
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|
September 01,2010
|
|
|
|
A fresh warning has been sounded over a potential house prices double-dip, as Bank of England figures provided more evidence that the house price rally has run out of steam.
Lending figures for July showed mortgage approvals for homebuyers still remain stuck at just over 50% of the long-term average.
And economists suggest that with momentum lost in the property market, prices should slip again.
However, they say the heavy falls seen in 2008 are unlikely to be repeated and London and the South East should fare much better than the rest of the country.
After hitting record lows in late 2008 and then rising throughout 2009, the number of mortgages being approved for those buying a home has steadied at less than 50,000 per month this year.
House prices rallied as property market activity and homebuyer mortgage approvals rose, but with the market now running out of steam, Andrew Goodwin, senior economic advisor to the influential Ernst & Young ITEM Club, has said prices should slip again.
He said: 'This morning's figures provide further confirmation that the housing market is heading for a double dip, with net mortgage lending pretty much flat and the number of mortgage approvals remaining very low.
'The figures for mortgage approvals, a proxy for activity, tend to be well correlated with prices and the latest figures clearly point to falling prices over the second half of this year and into 2011, particularly now that supply shortages have eased.'
Goodwin suggested annual price falls of between 3% and 5% will be seen over the next 12 months, before house price stabilise.
Today's Bank of England lending figures showed 48,722 mortgages approved for house purchase in July, in line with the 48,546 six-month average, but Goodwin pointed out this is well below the ten-year monthly average of about 93,000. Net lending rose by just £100m – down considerably on the £500m seen the month before and £800m six-month average.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at analysts IHS Global Insight, said evidence from the property market has been 'consistently downbeat recently'.
He said: 'Consequently, we continue to suspect that house prices will fall back over the latter months of 2010 and then very likely soften further in 2011.'
Archer forecasts house prices to fall 3% during the second half of this year, followed by a drop of around 5% in 2011. This would be far gentler than the double-digit falls registered by the major house price reports in 2008 and early 2009
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, says the problem for those without a spot-on credit history and big deposit remains difficulty in securing mortgages.
He said: 'A lack of mortgage finance remains a key problem for many borrowers looking to take their first step on the property ladder, with the high deposits required still proving to be an obstacle for many. Uncertainty over the outlook for the market may also be discouraging would-be buyers.'
The warning that austerity measures will now replace economic stimulus is leading homebuyers to be more cautious, according to mortgage brokers. This combined with the knowledge that interest rates must head up at some point is leading to more borrowers taking out fixed rate mortgages rather than cut-price trackers.
Brian Murphy, head of lending at independent mortgage broker Mortgage Advice Bureau, said the mortgage market was stabilising and homebuyer levels could remain low for the rest of the year.
He said: 'The October Spending Review — D-Day for consumer confidence — is approaching fast and many prospective borrowers are understandably being cautious. Only once the full extent of the cuts is known will borrowing levels move more decisively in any one direction.
'The appetite for fixed rate loans has risen consistently throughout the year, which suggests people are being more cautious in the run-up to the Spending Review.'
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